Significant sanctions against Russia – Sitsvenskan

US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that sanctions against Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine could lead to sanctions. On Thursday, the governments of Washington and London proposed new sanctions against Russia – including the expulsion of four major Russian banks from the US banking system and the restriction of British technology exports to Russia.

Per Hammerland, SEB’s leading strategist for emerging markets, says he does not accept sanctions, even though restrictions on the export of technology equipment to Russia have an impact on the Russian economy and have the potential to slow the growth of the country’s GDP. Massive.

– This is a bit disappointing because expectations about sanctions have risen when Biden and to some extent Europe have talked about sanctions that have never been seen before. They have never been seen before against Russia, but sanctions against Iran and North Korea are tougher. That being said, I agree with Biden that it is a little difficult to explain that there are significant sanctions, he says.

Russia’s energy exports account for about 20 percent of the country’s GDP, which would be a definite target for foreign sanctions. But Russia is so dependent on natural gas that many European countries are unable to support the decision to cut off gas from pipelines from Russia to Europe.

– If so, you run the risk of having to introduce an energy consumption ratio. Hammerland says this will be a big step for Europe.

Such a decision can only come later if Russia’s dependence on economies on natural gas is reduced, he continues.

– Conflict will turn bloody, take longer, and sanctions against Russian energy exports will be introduced. But he says it could take a year because he wants to invest in alternative energy sources before halting energy exports from Russia.

The G7 Group and the European Union have discussed the possibility of excluding Russia from Swift, the banks’ international exchange body, but neither the United States nor the United Kingdom has taken that step. Britain is ready for the proposal, while US President Biden says European nations oppose it.

Hammerland does not believe that Western countries will, at least in the short term, push for Swift cooperation to exclude Russian banks.

– It is linked to energy exports, where Gazprombank and Sberbank are responsible for most payments, so you can not expel them from Swift in the future, he says.