In the 43rd week of last year, the spread of infection accelerated again after a quiet summer. Now it looks set for a surge – ten weeks earlier this year.
There are likely several factors affecting it, says infection control doctor Lisa Laby Sandelin.
The prevalence of infection was low in Kalmar county until fall 2020. Only at week 43 did it spread in earnest and reached 100 cases for the first time after the summer months.
After that, wait for a harsh and difficult winter – with a very large spread of infection.
The spread of infection has already now reached completely different levels compared to the same time period last year.
There may be several factors working together. On the one hand, we have the delta variant, on the other hand, we are tired of the epidemic, and on the other hand, some restrictions have been relaxed. Many may want to go out, travel, and bring the infection home. Your network of contacts may have increased further, which may contribute to the spread of the infection. But above all, I think sharing is more effective in getting hurt. We must remember that we had the original variant from Wuhan last summer. He didn’t even come to Alpha, says Lisa Lapp Sandlin, MD, an infection control physician.
In 2020, there was a significant outbreak of infection in the winter season. Given that it started earlier this year, could a major outbreak of the infection also have spread earlier?
– It’s very possible. At the same time, vaccines should counteract this, but Delta spreads more easily. The vast majority of coronaviruses circulate best in late winter and we’ll see what stage we go into, if it’s going to be a tough fall or a tough winter.
Positive tests are increasing
The trend in several places in the county is that infections are on the rise again.
– It is often monitored. There were larger numbers in Oskarshamen and Kalmar, but even in the north, infections came back again after the summer. We’ve seen an increase in the number of virus cases in the county in recent weeks. We are also seeing signs that the proportion of positive PCR samples is increasing. So the number of people infected with the Covid-19 virus is more than before. Cases are related to travel within or outside the country and, above all, to social activities. These are mainly people who have not been vaccinated, but we also see mild infections in people who have been fully or partially vaccinated.
With on-site training and the return of employees to the workplace, the risk of infection spreading increases.
The Swedish Public Health Agency’s assessment is that local education should be the main principle. The principles must be adapted so that overcrowding can be avoided and the spread of infection reduced. We’ll be having a meeting with many different actors, including infection control, the KLT, the county board of directors and managers to look at how we can limit the spread of infection during the fall.
“Not there yet”
Of course, it is difficult to predict how widespread the infection will be this fall.
– It’s hard to answer that. There are two different aspects, partly how common the infection will be and what the vaccination rate will look like and any restrictions, and partly how extensive the need for hospital care will be. This is a very important parameter and so far we have only a few patients. If too many people are infected, there will also be a strain on health care. There will be a race between viruses and vaccines.
Some restrictions have been eased. Will we be able to have it that way for the rest of the year?
The Public Health Agency will be responsible for this. The goal is to vaccinate as many and as many as possible just to ease restrictions. How quickly this can be done depends on the burden placed on health care.
At a certain point, it will not be interesting to talk about or describe the spread of infection. When it will be accessed is unclear.
– Now it is about reducing the spread of infection in society in general. Delta is more contagious than SARS, infectious disease, pandemic influenza and possibly against measles. We’ve come to a point where this naturally spreads, just like other respiratory infections, but we’re not there yet.
“Extreme tv maven. Beer fanatic. Friendly bacon fan. Communicator. Wannabe travel expert.”