The British referendum could have dire consequences for the global economy.
I understand there is concern because there is now a lot of reporting around the UK referendum, says Catherine Dunnen, economist at Swedbank Macro Analysis.
If Brexit becomes a reality, the British economy could weaken and the EU could start to question Europe.
– Lena Sellgren, chief economist at Business Sweden, warned that it would hit Swedish jobs hard.
But as a layman, it’s hard to influence this kind of risk.
Think about your personal finances in Brexit
However, there may be reason to think about your personal finances.
If you’ve recently bought a home and you have a very high mortgage, it’s time to think about the risks of your savings and perhaps consider having a slightly lower risk. It may also be appropriate to review your loan profile and possibly relate portions of the loan, says Catherine Dannen.
Read also: This is how Brexit affects Swedes’ jobs, pensions and savings
It is also important to find the level of risk that you are comfortable with when it comes to your own savings.
“I think you should have some ice in your stomach and feel the risk profile you’re comfortable with from a longer perspective,” she says.
Central banks have prepared various packages of measures to pour oil on the waves in the event of a storm in the financial markets, it is reported. Swedbank Macro Analysis before the British elections.
We are confident that central banks are very prepared, will act during elections and are ready to act if the markets become very volatile. Our assessment is that if central banks need to act, says Catherine Dannen, they will do so in a coordinated way to calm markets.
Consequence: the wind can give in the sails of truth
If it is Brexit, it could continue the trend of low interest rates in Sweden.
– For Riksbank, our main scenario is that you will sit still in the boat, but you indicate a very high level of preparedness, especially if the Krona is going to strengthen sharply. If strong actions from international central banks strengthen the krona very sharply and quickly increases the likelihood that Riksbank will be forced to do more or we will have a longer period with a lower policy rate, says Catherine Danin.
Does the European Central Bank have the ability to withstand the large fluctuations in financial markets in the event of a Brexit?
– These are the signals sent by the European Central Bank. But it also depends on how strong and long the movements are.
I am the opinions of the Financial Times Brexit Pool Tracker, which balances leading polls, the Brexit side had a marginal advantage on Wednesday afternoon.
Read also: Frexit warning – the next blow to the EU
At the same time, bookmakers estimated the probability of Britons voting to stay at 57 per cent and leave at 43 per cent, according to Oddchecker.com.
You should take opinion polls with new salt. Historically, “the bookmakers” have been healthier than the polls, says Catherine Dannen.
The wind can give in the sails to the right
If Brexit is, many observers warn, it will give populist parties the wind in their sails.
French right-wing populist National Front leader Marine Le Pen has already promised free elections If she’s going to be president next year, according to reports financial times.
If the Brexit debate spreads to more countries, there is a risk that it will be more difficult for the EU to implement important long-term reforms for EU growth, which in turn will negatively affect the economies of both Europe and Sweden because our trade with the EU is important, she says Catherine Dunn.
“Extreme tv maven. Beer fanatic. Friendly bacon fan. Communicator. Wannabe travel expert.”