Strong statistics point to GDP growth in the first quarter

Analyst comments appear after the real Swedish data shock for February – with the GDP index, business output, industrial orders and household consumption.

“Data through February points to more than a good start to the year,” Swedishbank analyst Pernella Johansson wrote in the commentary.

She adds that the statistics indicate that the gross domestic product will grow during the first quarter, while Sweden Bank previously expected it to decline.

But late vaccines and concerns about the third wave of Corona are expected to affect the outlook in the short term. This implies downside risks to our expectations of a strong recovery in the second quarter, but given the resilience of the economy so far, we believe our outlook for GDP growth of 3 percent this year still looks relatively good. ”

Statistics Sweden continued its monthly GDP index, rising by 0.7 percent in February, after rising by 0.5 percent in January. At the same time, the value of production in commercial and industrial businesses has also increased, as has the intake of industry demands and household consumption. However, it can be seen that all indicators, except for industrial orders, are lower than they were a year ago.

The Swedish economy has become increasingly resilient in the face of COVID-19 restrictions. Overall, both the hard data for January and February and the sentiment indicators for March point to positive GDP growth during the first quarter, which is stronger than our expectations. But the recovery will likely remain weak until restrictions are lifted, “Handelsbanken chief economist Anders Bergvall wrote in a comment.