On their successful road to the final, both Italy and England appear to have found their ideal line-up. But is Italy’s form curve pointing downwards? And can England hold their nerve again in front of their incredibly trophy-hungry fans? The answers will be found in tonight’s thrilling EC Final, starting at 10pm.
Italy-England, European Championship Final
Wembley, London, 10pm
Commentators: Christopher Herberts and Janie Liske
Italy situation: Can the team get back on track? A new gearbox will be needed
Looking at the whole of the past month, Italy are the best team in the European Championship, but the one thing that worries the friends of the national team is the question of whether the curve of form is pointing downwards.
In the group stage, it was difficult to find fault, but an overly critical view would suggest that the Italian game only shone in one half of the knockout stages, the first in the quarter-final against Belgium. In the two previous matches at Wembley, in the round of 16 against Austria and the semi-final against Spain, Italy, on the other hand, were extremely dangerous.
At the same time, Italy have the most complete squad in the tournament, and the veterans in the team who are on a winning streak, such as the central defender duo of Chiellini and Bonucci, will shine in matches like this. It is also easy to argue that Italy have less pressure on them, while England in a different way carry the unrealistic expectations of an entire nation on their shoulders.
England's position: Will calm and focus also be maintained while harvesting gold?
The most impressive thing about the performance of the European Commission in England is the calm, composure and order. The team has not been nervous even once in the tournament, and therefore has blind confidence in its style of play.
The group stage went off without a hitch. Before the last 16 against Germany, it was confirmed that patience was key, and England held out for 75 minutes before taking the final quarter. Against Ukraine, the team decided at half-time to go out and take the game straight away, and as ordered, scored two goals in five minutes.
When the team found themselves at a disadvantage in the semi-final against Denmark for the first time in a European Championship, they responded by rising to the occasion and playing the best football of the tournament. Denmark were held back and England had more passes into the opposition penalty area than anyone else in the tournament, arguably the most effective way to win a penalty.
But with calm and style having defined England’s efforts so far, the recipe for success is really at stake in the final. Is it possible to keep your cool in a European final against Italy? Is the team still lacking in experience? After all, there are only three players in the starting line-up who have become league champions during their careers. Isn’t the risk of overload or shutdown too great?
Frozen Snack: Is Wembley completely invaded by bugs?
There is no shortage of pure football talk. The countless tactical displays, Italy’s unbeaten run, the behaviour of the English fans or referee Björn Kuiper’s altercation with Marco Verratti earlier in the season.
But the forces of nature also want to be in the corner. Clouds of millions of insects are hovering over London and You may land at Wembley in time for the match.
Does this all sound a little familiar? It is unlikely that something similar will happen at the start of the final match of the last European Championship.
Stay tuned: Who will win the shooting league?
The champion will be crowned tonight, but of course it is also becoming clear who will come back with the win in the Shooting League. Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo and Czech Republic's Patrik Schick have both scored five goals and could maintain their lead, especially if Harry Kane leaves the pitch without a goal in the final.
England's Kane has scored four goals in three play-off games, becoming the only league winner to score a brace tonight. Raheem Sterling, who has scored three goals so far, has not completely given up hope of finishing at least tied for first place.
In contrast, no Italian has scored more than two goals so far, so a hat-trick is required to take part in the battle for victory.
Eleven Start: Several estimated options, based on the same as last time
Both teams played six games in the EC to find their best XI, and both appear to have succeeded. No other explanation can be given when both Italy and England are expected to play with exactly the same starting line-ups as in the semi-finals.
There is no shortage of options. For Italy, the talk in the local sports press has mostly been about Ciro Immobile and his weak role, and there have been calls for a stronger team with Andrea Belotti as captain. There is also the possibility of a change in the full-back positions after Alessandro Florenzi fully recovered from injury.
The big question for England is whether they should go with a back three or a back four. The former system of three central defenders worked brilliantly in the last 16 against Germany and in extra time against Denmark last time out, but the advice is for Southgate to go with the same line-up as last time out and have Kieran Trippier start on the bench.
Italy’s players also have more experience in big games and it is certainly tempting for the England manager to tweak that statistic by bringing in Liverpool’s Jordan Henderson, but Declan Rice is likely to keep his place. Bukayo Saka, 19, will also start again, a decision made easier by Phil Foden’s withdrawal with a minor injury this week.
Italy (4–3–3): Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, immobile, Insigne
England (4–2–3–1): Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Phillips, Rice; Saka, Mount, Sterling. Kane
Commentator's Tip: Expect an exciting movie.
It is perhaps appropriate to take into account the fateful fortunes that the undersigned had in these articles during the European Commission meeting. Out of 13 tips, I got the correct mark/winner in 7 cases and the final result exactly right in 3. It is good that the decision is up to everyone, but I am not satisfied.
In the final, the scoreline is likely to be the same as in the two semi-finals, 1-1. If I were asked to answer who would be the European champions, I would, after much hesitation, say England. But the Three Lions have home advantage and, moreover, they are in line to win if there is a penalty shootout, after Italy’s win on Tuesday.
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