Previously classified report: Shell predicted global warming more than 30 years ago

previously classified the studylike Previously reported DN, the authors proceed from two scenarios to the year 2050. The first is called “The Sustainable World” and is based on a future where greenhouse gas emissions peak around the year 2000, then decline rapidly. As a result of the emissions already made, in this scenario the authors of the report still project an increase in the average global temperature between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees.

The second scenario has come to be called “global mercantilism”, in which development seems to depend on the undiminished desire of energy companies to increase their revenues, and thus emissions, from fossil fuels. Here, the report’s authors predict that the temperature will rise “much more,” and that the hardest-hit regions on Earth will actually appear in “temperate latitudes” — something that has now been proven to be true.

“There will be more violent weather – more storms, more droughts, more floods. The average sea level will rise at least 30 cm. Farming patterns will change dramatically. Something as simple as a moderate change in precipitation destroys ecosystems, And many species of trees, plants, animals and insects will not be able to move and adapt,” reads the same Shell report from 1989 on the “global mercantilism” scenario.

predicts a “potential refugee problem”

But it is not only the problems of the Earth’s ecosystem that are addressed. The oil company also expects great suffering for people who, due to climate change, will have to flee to less affected areas.

“The potential refugee problem under global mercantilism could be unprecedented. Africans would push into Europe, Chinese into the Soviet Union, Latin Americans into the United States, Indonesians into Australia. National borders no longer matter — they are overrun by the masses. Conflicts will arise in Everywhere: “Civilization will prove to be a fragile thing,” the authors wrote in the 1989 report.

Despite the fact that Shell knew about the potentially catastrophic consequences of its greenhouse gas emissions 34 years ago, the oil company still chose to proceed with its disaster scenario, keeping the report secret to this day.

You may play a role in legal proceedings

DN spoke with environmental historian Kristoffer Ekberg, who researches climate denial at Lund University. According to him, the most remarkable thing about the report is that Shell clearly saw the connection between its operations and global warming.

What stands out about this new document is that it clearly indicates that collective action is required to deal with the climate problem. It’s also interesting that they recognize that global warming is directly related to the energy use that occurs through economic activities, Christopher Ekberg tells DN.

According to Ekberg, the report could have an impact on lawsuits against Shell and other energy companies over their liability in the climate issue.

Documents like this are absolutely necessary to ensure faith. When they write clearly that climate change is caused by the use of energy, it shows that their actions were premeditated and deliberate, says Christopher Ekberg.

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