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The United Nations warns: a record-breaking hot year may be on the horizon

The cheers erupted when the world’s nations agreed in Paris in 2015 on a groundbreaking agreement to curb climate change and its impacts. It was agreed to keep global warming well below 2 degrees, with an ambition of just 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.

But it is slow. Many have already announced that the chances of achieving the more ambitious of the two temperature targets are dead, while the UN Climate Committee IPCC said in its latest report that “now or never” applies if it is to succeed.

Just six months ago, the overall ambition of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow was to keep the 1.5 degree target “alive”. But the world’s governments have yet to match the target with the kind of emissions cuts needed.

Then-Minister of Climate and Environment Per Polund (MP) at the COP26 Climate Summit.

Then-Minister of Climate and Environment Per Polund (MP) at the COP26 Climate Summit.

Photo: Henrik Montgomery / TT

Indeed, within five years For example, a global temperature rise could exceed 1.5 degrees — at least temporarily, according to the United Nations Meteorological Organization, which estimates the chance of that happening for at least one year is 48 percent.

However, the researchers stress that the fact that global warming temporarily exceeds 1.5 degrees is not the same goal that has become quite so elusive. Global temperatures vary from year to year, and the Paris Agreement refers to a long-term average rather than the temperature over an individual year.

In the future, it is expected to become more common with temporary breaches of the standard, but researchers also see an increased risk that it may be exceeded over a longer period.

— That’s a warning about what the average will be in just a few years, Natalie Mawald, a climate researcher at Cornell University who was not involved in preparing the report, tells AP.

The melting of Antarctica has increased in recent decades.

The melting of Antarctica has increased in recent decades.

Photo: Tori Meek/TT

As long as the countries of the world It continues to emit greenhouse gases, and the temperature will continue to rise, said WMO President Petteri Taalas.

“Besides that, our oceans will continue to get warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme. Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what is happening in the Arctic affects us all.” .

In the long term, a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees will have dire consequences, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It also increases the risk that the world will reach irreversible tipping points, such as the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet.

1.5 score is not a random statistic. Rather, it is an indication of when the climate impact will be increasingly harmful to humans and indeed the entire planet,” Petteri Taalas wrote.

Previously, With the Earth’s temperature rising around 1.1 degrees, the world is experiencing noticeable effects – like last year’s severe wildfires in North America or the intense heat waves that swept India and Pakistan.

Not a single heat wave or extreme weather causes climate change, but this type of event is expected to be more common and more intense in a warming world.

It is also certain (93 percent) that at least one year between 2022 and 2026 will be the warmest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Likely to occur within a year when El Niño hits, a weather phenomenon that can lead to high temperatures, severe storms, and droughts.

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