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The UK has a lot to lose from Brexit

The UK has a lot to lose from Brexit

The German Bertelmannsstiftelsen Foundation has cooperated with the German Ifo Institute calculated Different scenarios if the UK leaves the European Union Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on whether the Conservative Conservative Party will win the UK general election next week.

In the worst-case scenario, British GDP in 2030 would be up to 14% lower than it would be if Britons remained in the EU. This equates to approximately three trillion kroner.

In a less dramatic way According to the scenarios, the UK's GDP risks falling by between 0.6 and 3% in 2030 if the country leaves the European Union. In neither scenario would the GDP loss be offset by the UK not having to pay EU tariffs, which currently equate to around 0.5% of GDP.

This is the first study to also examine how the other 27 EU countries would be financially affected in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Depending on the type of scenario, only the Irish economy is at greater risk than the UK economy. On average, other EU countries would lose between 0.1 and 0.36% of GDP in 2030 if Britain left. Sweden finishes slightly above this average.

– Economically, Brexit would be a lose-lose business for everyone in Europe, and above all for Britons, Aart de Geus, head of the Bertelman Foundation, said in a statement.

The report's authors write so Calculations of the economic impacts of a country leaving the EU are “associated with a great deal of uncertainty”. Other studies on the economic consequences for the United Kingdom do not calculate British losses as high.

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