The spread of infection in the country has now fallen to levels below the limit set by the Public Health Agency in order to be able to completely abolish infection control restrictions. For this to become a reality, higher vaccine coverage is needed and the burden on health care reduced further.
Despite the fact that the national infection prevalence rate remains low, the regional differences are large, largely due to the delta variant, which is rapidly becoming prevalent. In many areas, the introduction of the new variable reversed the downtrend.
In Västernorrland, the delta variant made up nearly 75 percent of all newly recorded cases analyzed last week. It’s hard to predict what the development will look like in the future, according to Assistant District Infection Control Doctor Maria Tempe.
– We need to be vigilant, but we must also have some stomach ice. Because we have a delta variant, we track infections very carefully and really try to find all cases, she says.
Västra Götalandsregionen som For a long time the drop in infection rates last week was barely a 30% increase. Variable delta accounted for about 40 percent of all new cases last week, compared to about 14 percent in Week 25, according to special district analyses.
“What we have in VGR is a rapid increase in infection at a low prevalence of infection and we see an increasing portion is the delta variant of the virus,” says District Infection Control Deputy Doctor Liv Doteval.
The increased incidence of the delta variant in the West could be linked to increased travel abroad.
We receive traces of infection every day from people from southern Europe. He adds that there are people who have contracted the infection on planes from southern Europe.
According to Joachim Dillner, Professor In the epidemiology of infectious diseases, the increasing numbers of infections are cause for concern, although they are small numbers.
– The infection is increasing in some places, even though we are in the middle of summer, something new. Previous variants did not have this ability, which means that the delta variant is clearly more contagious, he says.
According to Dillner, whether or not infection control in the region slows the delta variant, it may be critical whether we have a fourth wave of high-infection spreads awaiting this fall.
– It certainly could be that, if the delta variable takes over completely, the situation becomes more difficult when the weather gets colder. The goal now should be to keep sharing away, he says.
Dillner draws parallels with the British Isles, where the epidemic has been largely accounted for, but with the delta variable now stabilizing, infections are expected to increase again, from very low levels.
– What is happening now in the UK is a sign that the delta variant is spreading very quickly once it becomes loose, then the spread of infection can go from almost zero to rapidly multiplying.
Värmland was one of them Areas that received early local outbreaks of the delta variant. When several nationwide restrictions were lifted in June, Värmland decided to keep some recommendations at the regional level, as well as expand infection tracing.
Now Värmland residents have reversed that trend and the number of registered cases has fallen last week, according to statistics from the Swedish Public Health Agency.
It’s important to track the infection at an early stage regardless of the variant, but especially when you have spread of a more contagious variant, says district infection control doctor Ingmar Hallen.
According to Hallen, lessons were learned from early delta outbreaks:
It is important to be vigilant, as infection can spread quickly when infection rises. The risk of an outbreak remains when we have non-vaccinated groups.
The Swedish Public Health Agency does not believe in a large wave of infection, although some of the scenarios developed by the agency predict a certain increase in the spread of infection this fall.