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Cautious optimism among the self-employed during the holiday season

Cautious optimism among the self-employed during the holiday season

The SEB Entrepreneurs Index, which shows entrepreneurs’ view of business over the next three months, is down by one unit in August, from plus 9 to plus 8. In the survey, all three economic indicators are also down. Turnover drops from plus 1 to minus 7, working hours from plus 1 to minus 14 and liquidity from plus 8 to minus 5.

entrepreneurship index
The percentage of businessmen who believe in the positive development of business during the next three months decreases from 25 percent to 24 percent. Meanwhile, the share of business owners who believe in negative development remains at 16 percent for the fourth month in a row. The percentage of those who believe in steady development drops from 58 percent to 57 percent. Entrepreneurship index is the difference between the percentage of those who believe in positive development and the percentage of those who believe in negative development. The index in this measurement is at 8, which is a decrease of 1 unit from last month.

– Despite the marginal decline in outlook for the future, there are no clear indications that the recession has affected entrepreneurs and cautious optimism still prevails. On the contrary, resilience has proven strong with an upward trend in seeing the future over the past six months and that despite the more difficult economic situation, SEB private economist says Amerigo Fernandez.

More economic indicators
When asked how the three economic indicators (turnover rate, liquidity and working hours) developed during the past month compared to the previous month, all three indicators decline. They are also measured as equilibrium measures, i.e. the proportion that states an increase minus the proportion that states a decrease. Turnover drops from plus 1 to minus 7, working hours from plus 1 to minus 14 and liquidity from plus 8 to minus 5.

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– The monthly decline in economic indicators can be explained by the usual holiday times and therefore should not be interpreted in the first place as a worrying development. Before fall, entrepreneurs have built up some liquidity reserves that can be used to head off potential interest rate increases, Americo Fernandez says.

Entrepreneurship Index – Evolution in the last 12 months:

Aug 23 July 23rd June 23rd May 23rd April 23rd March 23 February 23rd Jan 23 December 22nd November 21 Oct 22 September 22
8 9 5 9 0 4 0 -7 -2 -1 1 8

Each month, Demoscope conducts the Entrepreneur Index Survey on behalf of SEB. This survey is based on nearly 600 online interviews about individual owners’ opinions of turnover, liquidity, business hours, and future prospects. The survey was conducted from 21st to 30th July.

For more information, please contact:
Américo Fernández, Private Economist at SEB
070-739 4564
[email protected]

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