Analysis: Tense wait for Putin’s next move in the worst crisis

Russia militarily entered Georgia in 2008 and supported rebels in the secessionist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is a still unresolved and frozen conflict. This is an awareness for the West. The dissolution of the Soviet Union – 30 years ago this year – with relaxation, disarmament and a new Europe, the European Union and more and more eastern countries in NATO.

But President Vladimir Putin has said it was a major geopolitical mistake. Faced with the threat that Ukraine would also be annexed to Western territory on its own accord, he annexed Crimea to Ukraine in 2014. He supported the rebels in two separate areas, now in the east, with soldiers and equipment. Country.

The war raged and killed more than 13,000 people. The peace process stumbled. The ceasefire exists on paper, but not in practice. Attacks and fighting have increased significantly in recent times, and Russia has now mobilized 150,000 troops with war vehicles, artillery and other heavy equipment, according to Western intelligence and EU Foreign Minister Joseph Borel. It may be a preparation for an invasion of the border with Ukraine and the Black Sea.

Biden warns of repercussions

If this is a way for Vladimir Putin to feel the pulse of the new US President Joe Biden, only the Russians know how far the American will allow him to go. However, Biden called him and warned him of the consequences.

The conversation went unnoticed before the United States introduced a series of punitive measures, including sanctions for sanctions, cyber-attacks and other interference. The treatment of Alexei Navalny, who suffered imprisonment and is now seriously ill, is in a bad situation.

Russia’s ambassador to Britain Andrei Kellin tells the BBC that Navalny is behaving like a hooligan when he tries to break any established rules. He says the purpose is to attract attention.

The Guardian wrote on Tuesday that US Ambassador to Moscow John Sullivan would return home for advice. This is after he was recommended by the Russian government to leave the country when described as a “very tense situation”. Therefore, no country will have their leading diplomats at a critical moment.

Diplomatic crisis with the Czech Republic

Russia is also now in a serious diplomatic crisis with the Czech Republic. In 1968, Soviet troops invaded Czechoslovakia. Now the Russian military intelligence service GRU, and former GRU officer and dual agent Sergei Skribal and his daughter of the same name who are believed to have tried to poison the UK in 2018, have been accused of exploding an ammunition depot in the city of Virbadis. . Two died. Ukraine is said to have a supply chain.

The Czech Republic has expelled 18 Russian ambassadors, and the Kremlin has responded by expelling 20 Czech ambassadors. According to Vladimir Zafarov, the first deputy chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Russian Federation Council, the Russian newspaper Izvestia is being planned by Washington for a diplomatic expulsion campaign from various European countries.

In this case, the Dass news agency quoted US intelligence services as saying that Belarus was involved in a plot to assassinate the president and his family. Czech officials took the initiative to divert public attention from it, citing an example of how a high pitch reflects awkward contradictions.

On Wednesday, President Putin will deliver his annual address on the situation in the country and around the world. At the same time, new large-scale protests are expected in Russia in support of Alexei Navalny. The European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States this week called on Russian authorities to immediately reach out to doctors they trust. They are also responsible for his safety and health in the penal colony, which is news at a critical juncture.

John Huckland is a foreign correspondent and longtime employee at Getforks-Boston. With a worldwide surveillance unit, he has monitored many of the world’s conflicts and disasters on site.