Spain are European champions – decided late in the final against England! – Sports – svenska.yle.fi

Spain are enjoying the most impressive winning streak in European history, and Spanish teams have always won the final. But England are extremely difficult to beat and were completely unstoppable after their substitutions.

At 22.00 Spain-England

EC Final, Olympic Stadium, Berlin
Commentators: Christopher Herberts and Janie Liske

Favoritism rarely swings sharply during a tournament.

When the European Championships began exactly a month ago, England were the favourites to take home the gold, with the lowest odds ever among the bookmakers in the world. Now that it all comes down to the 51st and final match of the tournament, the starting point is different.

Despite the fact that the favourites to advance went into the tournament unbeaten, England won the final with an unfavourable scoreline. According to oddsmakers, analysts and statisticians, Spain is the favourite, with odds of around 60-40.

It says something about how England played in the European Championship, but it says more about how Spain behaved. Six wins in the same tournament without penalties, something no one had ever managed before. The last European champions to qualify for the tournament with a clean sheet were France in 1984, but five games was enough for Michel Platini’s team.

Spain scored 13 goals, the most in the tournament, and the teams sent off along the way made this run unprecedented in history. La Roja beat defending champions Italy, world champions France, third-placed Croatia and hosts Germany.

In addition, there is an amazing winning culture in Spanish football. Or how about this absolutely unmatched statistic: in the last 23 years, there have been 26 Spanish appearances in the World Cup, European Championship, Champions League and Europa League finals. All 26 times there has been a Spanish victory. And nine of those victories have come against English teams.

The line-up for the final will be the same as in the semi-final, with the addition of right-back Dani Carvajal returning from suspension. There is a question mark over one position: can Nacho continue at centre-back or does Robin Le Normand (last suspended) slot in as the XI instead?

The spread of winners in EC history has been somewhat incredible: 16 tournaments have produced 10 different champions. Spain tonight aim to become the first in history with four titles, while England dream of becoming the 11th nation to win men's European Championship gold.

The Three Lions are playing their first major final away from home (the 1966 World Cup final and the 2021 Euros final went to Wembley) and there is no doubt that English football has never been better than it is now in the 1920s.

For the fourth summer in a row, England are playing in a major final (2021 EC Men’s Championship, 2022 EC Women’s Championship, 2023 Women’s World Championship, 2024 EC Men’s Championship). The usual pessimistic murmur that was so strong at the start of the tournament has been replaced by a kind of cautious optimism.

What still speaks against England is the poor form of their stars. Jude Bellingham is playing with a shoulder injury and Harry Kane is out with a back problem. Manager Gareth Southgate has yet to make any changes to his starting line-up ahead of the final and, according to English media who have covered all the games so far, it will be the same team that started against the Netherlands on Wednesday.

But sooner or later, Southgate makes the changes, and England turn out to be the best in the tournament. Three knockout games in a row, England have recovered from a deficit and progressed.

A fascinating statistic tells us that when England make their first substitution in a match, they have not conceded a goal since. From substitutions onwards, England have a goal difference of 4-0, compared to 3-4 with eleven regulars on the pitch.

Given that Spain lost the initiative and slipped back to the top both in the quarter-finals against Germany and in the semi-finals against France, there is a strong possibility that things will get worse in the final minutes.

For England, it is very difficult to win: in the last 20 matches in the European Championship, the team has lost only once during normal time. The team has played 14 consecutive competitive matches without conceding more than one goal in a match.

Is the impressive toughness enough to end the 58-year wait for gold? Whoever rings the bell at 10 o'clock this evening will get the answer.