So, conservatives have had enough

There is a vote for amazing Boris Johnson in the House of Commons on Monday. Conservative discontent with the prime minister has grown to the point that his political future will be decided this evening.

Why is voting now?

The short answer is that some Conservative MPs did not want to influence the Queen’s jubilee celebrations. Therefore, they chose to block their letters to the committee, which resulted in a conservative vote of no confidence.

The long answer is that many Conservative MPs have had enough of the prime minister. It is said that the revolution against him is not organized. No clear successor has now called on his supporters to oust Boris Johnson.

It’s a diverse group of Conservative MPs who have publicly declared they can no longer support Boris Johnson – some pro-Brexit, others closer to the center, some social conservatives.

What was the straw that broke the camel’s back?

Many mention the word “partigate” – discoveries that Boris Johnson and his staff have been involved in while the rest of Britain has had to adjust to harsh lockdowns.

“The government under your rule has no purpose. It has a large majority, but it has no long-term plan…Instead, you can move forward as if you were campaigning, changing the subject and creating political and cultural divisions aimed primarily at your advantage at a time when it stumbles The economy, inflation is rising and growth is weak.”

Conservatives are said to be ruthless in getting rid of party leaders who believe they can no longer lead them to electoral victory. The party now trails the opposition Labor by just over ten percentage points in opinion polls.

The Partygate scandal angered many voters. LEHTIKUVA / AFP / Daniel Leal

In addition, polls indicate that the Conservatives could lose by-elections in the traditional Conservative constituency of Tiverton and Honiton at the end of June. In the 2019 elections, the Conservatives won by a margin of 24,000 votes in the district.

Some are hailing the Queen’s Jubilee weekend events as the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s time as prime minister.

During the service, the Royal House commissioned Boris Johnson to read a passage from the Bible that called for reflection on the importance of telling the truth.

How does the vote work – and what happens if Boris Johnson loses?

The vote will take place on Monday evening. The result is expected shortly after 22:00 Finnish time. If a simple majority, half of the Conservative MPs plus one, votes against him, Boris Johnson must resign.

Several Conservative MPs and ministers have taken to social media to express their support for Boris Johnson. But the vote is secret, and Britain’s political journalists noted during the day that it is impossible to know how many people will choose to vote.

Thus, it is unclear how things will go. Boris Johnson’s supporters believe he will win. His critics warn that the prime minister should not underestimate his unpopularity in recent months.

If he loses, the Conservatives will hold a party leadership election where Boris Johnson will not be allowed to run.

But even if he succeeds in the vote, it is unclear how long he will remain in office. Former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May chose to resign, six months after winning a no-confidence vote.