Poll: Geert Wilders excels in the Netherlands

Far-right candidate Wilders achieved a strong electoral surge and advanced in the opinion polls during the last week.

But few believe he will achieve the strength shown by polls and double the number of states since the 2017 election.

According to the poll conducted by NOS TV, the government-dominated VVD party has only 23 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives.

The alliance between the social democratic PVDA and the environmentalist GL party gets 26 seats, the newly formed conservative National Security Council party gets 20 seats, while the EU and the anti-immigration PVV get 35 seats.

For the remaining parties to become larger than Wilders and his party, they need to merge.

In government?

Wilder’s strong lead creates a very uncertain situation ahead of government negotiations. Several parties explicitly opposed forming a government with him.

– They can envision it as a supportive party, but there are many indicators that it will find it difficult to form a coalition, says Ulrika Bergstein, Europe correspondent for SVT Aktuellt.

Together, the VVD, PVV and the National Security Council will have the support of 78 members of parliament. This is enough to obtain a majority.

However, there are many indications that negotiating a new government will take a long time.

– If Wilders fails to form a government, it will go to Frans Timmermans (PcdA), who leads the second-largest party, if polling station polls are correct, says Ulrika Bergstein.

After the last election in 2021, it took 299 days to reach a settlement.