Phasing out of coal is too slow – the world is moving towards 3 degrees of warming

– Many countries are promising to phase out coal from their energy systems, which is positive. But unfortunately, their commitments are not enough. If we are to have a realistic chance of meeting the 2-degree target, phasing out coal must happen faster, and countries that rely on other fossil fuels must increase their rate of transition, says international environment professor Aleah Serb. Institute at Lund University.

Phase-out of coal is necessary to keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees since the beginning of industrialization. In a study conducted by Mistra Electrification, a panel of analysts analyzed 72 countries’ pledges to phase out coal use by 2022-2050.

In the researchers’ best-case scenario, the temperature rise is likely to be below 2 degrees. But it assumes, among other things, that China and India start phasing out their coal use within five years. Also, their evacuation must be as quick as in England and faster than Germany promised.

The research team has also created scenarios that it considers more realistic. They indicate that the Earth is moving towards 2.5-3 degrees of global warming.

– Countries’ commitments are insufficient, even in the most ambitious countries. In addition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine puts several countries’ commitments at risk, says Jessica Jewell, an author of physical resource theory at Chalmers University of Technology.

The study shows that the 72 countries’ commitments to phase out coal power are similar to each other and in line with historical data on how quickly coal power has been phased out in the past.

About the study

study”phasing out coal to meet the 2°C target should mirror more ambitious national plans globally, despite safety and legitimacy concerns.” published at iopscience.iop.org.

About Mistra electrification

The MISTRA Electrification Research Program aims to accelerate the transition to a sustainable and efficient energy system. The project will focus on knowledge generation, electrification and sector connectivity, enabling equitable transition. A major funder is the research foundation MISTRA. The project is hosted by research firm EnergyForsk, which is leading the project in collaboration with Chalmers University of Technology. read more Mistra Electrification Website.

Chimney Photo: “Cloud Maker” by Ken Day, CC BY 3.0Wikimedia Commons.