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Moderate optimism among the self-employed ahead of a turbulent fall

Moderate optimism among the self-employed ahead of a turbulent fall

SEB’s Entrepreneurs’ Index, which shows entrepreneurs’ view of business over the next three months, fell by one unit this month, from plus 8 to plus 7. In the survey, only one of the three economic indicators declined, but all are holding In showing negative numbers. Trading value decreases from -7 to -8, while working hours increase from -14 to -4, and liquidity increases from -5 to -2. This is shown by the business index for the month of September.

Entrepreneur Index
The percentage of entrepreneurs who believe in a positive business development during the next three months increases from 24% to 26%. The percentage of entrepreneurs who believe in negative development increases from 16% to 19%. The percentage of those who believe in development decreases unchanged from 57 percent to 52 percent. The entrepreneurial index is the difference between the percentage that believes in positive development and the percentage that believes in negative development. The index in this measure is at 7 units, which is a decrease of 1 unit from last month.

– Just over half of Sweden’s self-employed expect no change in the fall, even though a recession is around the corner and the wave of bankruptcies is getting stronger. It is possible that the impending peak in interest rates and low inflation could give entrepreneurs hope that after all there will be a soft landing in the economy and that things will not get so bad, says SEB private economist. Amerigo Fernandez.

More economic indicators
When asked about the evolution of three financial indicators (business volume, liquidity and working hours) during the past month compared to the previous month, one of the three indicators decreases. They are also measured as balance measures, ie the ratio indicating an increase minus the ratio indicating a decrease. Only trading volume decreases from minus 7 to minus 8. Working time increases from minus 14 to minus 4 and liquidity increases from minus 5 to minus 2.

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– It’s never good news when economic indicators are negative, but it could be due to holiday periods. During September, many entrepreneurs will be tested when there is another increase in interest rates, while many will start up again after the holidays, says Americo Fernandez.

Entrepreneurs Index – Evolution over the last twelve months:

Sept. 23 Aug 23 July 23rd June 23rd May 23rd April 23rd Mar-23 February 23rd Jan 23 December 22nd November 21 Oct. 22
7 8 9 5 9 0 4 0 -7 -2 -1 1

Every month Demoskop conducts an Entrepreneur Indicator survey on behalf of SEB. This survey is based on nearly 600 online interviews about individual owners’ opinions on business volume, liquidity, business hours, and future prospects. The survey was conducted during the period 21-28 August.

For more information, please contact:
Americo Fernandez, Private Economist
070-739 4564
[email protected]

Media communication:
Niklas Magnusson, Head of Media Relations and External Communications
070-763 82 43
[email protected]

SEB is a leading financial group in Northern Europe with an international reach. Our goal is to positively shape the future through responsible advice and capital, today and for generations to come. By collaborating with our customers, we want to be a leading catalyst in the transition to a more sustainable world. In Sweden and the Baltic countries, we offer a wide range of financial advice and services. In Denmark, Finland, Norway, Germany and Great Britain, we focus on corporate business and investment banking based on a full-service corporate and institutional concept. Our international character is reflected in our presence in more than 20 countries around the world with approximately 17,500 employees. As at 30 June 2023, the total assets of the group were SEK 4,172 billion and the managed capital was SEK 2,271 billion. Read more about SEB at sebgroup.com/sv.