Climate shocks are affecting the world more and more – and to be expected

According to the World Meteorological Organization WMO in the Global Climate Year 2022, it is increasingly clear that the human, economic and environmental costs of climate change are increasing. In short.

WMO Annual Report Global Climate 2022 It clearly shows that the impact of climate change is becoming more pronounced every year. State of the World Climate 2022 shows planet-scale changes caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in land, oceans and atmosphere.

In recent years, the effects of climate change have become increasingly tangible and serious. One usually talks about climate shocks. These clearly increased in 2022, a year full of extreme climate-related weather events.

Climate indicators

The 2015-2022 period was the eight warmest year Despite the cooling effect of the 2019-2022 La Niña weather event, it has always been measured. The global average temperature in 2022 was 1.15 °C above the 1850–1900 average, making it the 5th or 6th warmest year, depending on which data series is used.

Many countries have recorded their hottest years ever. among others Great Britain and Northern Ireland, France, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy, Germany and Switzerland, the western Mediterranean, parts of central and eastern Asia, and New Zealand. No region experienced the lowest annual temperature in 2022

Concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – reached record levels observed in 2021, the latest year for which integrated global values ​​are available (The measurement series covers the period 1984-2021). The annual increase in methane concentration from 2020 to 2021 is the highest on record. Real-time data from specific locations shows that levels of all three greenhouse gases will continue to rise through 2022.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Talas clearly emphasized the consequences of this development:

As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and the climate continues to change, people around the world continue to be severely affected by extreme weather and climate events.

Socio-economic and environmental consequences

The report explores the many socio-economic impacts of extreme weather that wreak havoc on the lives of the most vulnerable people around the world. Five consecutive years of drought in East Africa, combined with other factors such as armed conflict, have brought catastrophic food insecurity to 20 million people in the region.

Droughts, floods and heat waves have affected communities on every continent and cost billions of dollars. The region is experiencing below average rainfall in 40 years.

Extensive flooding caused by heavy rains in Pakistan in July and August last year killed 1,700 people, while around 33 million were affected. Total damage and economic loss is estimated at US$30 billion. July (181 percent above normal) and August (243 percent above normal) were the highest recorded nationally. As of October 2022, there were about 8 million peopleForced to run into the countryof the flood.

Adverse climate and weather-related events have worsened conditions for many of the 95 million people already living in displacement.

Heat waves claim thousands of lives

According to the WMO, European heat waves claimed thousands of lives. In Spain, an estimated 4,600 people died as a result of the heat. In Germany it is about 4,500 and in Great Britain and France about 2,800 each. According to Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)A research unit at the Université catholique de Louvain in Brussels estimates that 16,416 people will die from extreme temperatures in Europe in 2022.

China had its most extensive and prolonged heat wave since national records began Mentioned, which lasted from mid-June to late August and resulted in the warmest summer on record with a difference of more than 0.5 °C. This is the second driest summer.

Both India and Pakistan were hit by severe heat waves ahead of the 2022 monsoon, which reduced harvests. This was threatened in conjunction with a ban on wheat exports and restrictions on rice exports to India following Russia’s launch of its invasion of Ukraine.The availability and sustainability of staple foods in international food markets poses major risks to countries already suffering from staple food shortages. This clarifies which climate-related extreme weather can have enhanced effects.

Continued ice melting and sea level rise

Ocean warming, loss of ice from glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in land water storage all contribute to sea level changes and will be evident by 2022. According to the WMO report, melting of glaciers and sea level rise – which again reached record levels in 2022 – will continue.Inside For thousands of years. Arctic sea ice extent in 2022 was below the 1991–2020 average for most of the year.

The WMO also highlighted that Antarctic sea ice has fallen to record lows and melting of some European glaciers is exceptional. Major glacier melt in most regions by 2022 coincides with a long-term acceleration of glacier mass losses, with six of the ten negative mass balance years recorded, including 2022, occurring since 2015.

– Sea ice in Antarctica is at its lowest level ever measured. In Europe, melting glaciers are sky high, says WMO director Petteri Talas.

In the European Alps, glacier mass loss records are set to be largely broken in 2022. There are three reasons for this extreme glacier melting. First, there was very little winter snow, and the snow was unsafe in early summer. Second, in March 2022, dust from the Sahara blew over the Alps. The dust darkened the ice surface (lowering its albedo), which in turn absorbed more heat from the Sun and further accelerated the melting of the ice. Third, heat waves in May and early September 2022 led to massive snow losses.

The ice on the glaciers began to melt a month earlier than usual and for the first time in history no ice survived the summer melt, even at the highest measuring sites, so there was no new ice. Between 2001 and 2022, the amount of glacier ice in Switzerland has decreased by more than a third.

Global mean sea levels continue to rise in 2022, reaching a new record. According to the WMO, the rate of sea level rise has doubled in 20 years, from 2.27 millimeters per year in the 1990s to 4.62 millimeters per year in the last decade.

Sea-level rise, which threatens the existence of coastal communities and sometimes entire nations, is driven not only by melting glaciers and ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica, but also by sea-level expansion due to warming. The WMO notes that ocean warming has been “particularly high over the last two decades”. Despite persistent La Niña conditions, 58 percent of the ocean surface experienced at least one ocean heat wave by 2022. In contrast, only 25 percent of the ocean surface experienced an ocean cold period.

Between 1960 and 2021, the ocean absorbed about 25 percent of annual anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. This helped mitigate the effects of climate change somewhat but led to increased acidity.

Early warning systems

However, WMO President Talas does not see everything as negative. He is particularly effective in inter-agency cooperation in addressing the humanitarian impacts of extreme weather and climate events. Especially to reduce related mortality and economic losses.

The UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative aims to fill the existing capacity gap to ensure that all people on Earth are protected by early warning services. Currently, about a hundred countries do not have adequate weather services. Achieving this ambitious task requires improvements in monitoring networks, investments in early warning, hydrology and climate service capacity.

The WMO report, the Copernicus Climate Report for Europe 2022, was appropriately published earlier. earth day Secretary General UN Antonio Gutierrez Earth Day called for “deep, rapid emissions reductions to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius”, as well as “massive investments in adaptation and resilience, especially for countries and communities most vulnerable to the crisis”.

Johan Rockström commented on SVT’s report Morning studio It shows what we already know, and that we will face decades of more severe heat waves, droughts, floods and melting glaciers.

The Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target will be exceeded even under best-case scenarios, Rockström notes. His belief is that “by the end of the century” the world will begin to return to one and a half degrees of warming compared to pre-industrial levels.

The new WMO report is accompanied by a story map that provides policymakers with information on how climate change indicators are performing. It also shows how improved technology is making the transition to renewable energy cheaper and more accessible than ever before. World decision makers should read this carefully.