In February, the United States shot down Chinese spy balloons that flew over American territory. China said the balloons entered by mistake, but the immediate aftermath prompted protests and Foreign Minister Antony Blinken canceled his planned visit to Beijing.
The weather had been cold before the balloon incident, but since then it has become even more freezing.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin shook hands with his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu at the Shangri-la Defense Policy Summit in Singapore some time ago, but the two have never had a face-to-face meeting. Since 2018, Li has been subject to US sanctions for his involvement in the purchase of Russian defense equipment. China’s position is that no bilateral meetings between defense ministers will take place until sanctions against Li are lifted.
Reduces Blinken’s attendance
While it was recently reported that Blinken will hold more contact meetings in China, the key message is that the relationship does not deteriorate further. From the US side, the importance of having a “constructive dialogue” is stressed to avoid escalation of conflict. US and Chinese warships and warplanes have recently come to blows in the area around Taiwan.
The US State Department downplays Blinken’s visit and says it’s negotiations, not negotiations. The foreign minister himself indicates that he is not concerned about any perceived US concessions.
But both China and the US are interested in expanding and controlling strategically important areas. The United States has what is known as the “tyranny of distance,” meaning that large operations must be organized from afar, while China has the advantage of proximity.
Builds an army
President Joe Biden has rapidly and purposefully strengthened the US presence in the Pacific region during his more than two years in office. Acus is an important part of the new defense alliance with Australia and Great Britain, but so are old and new bases in the Philippines near Taiwan. It is about access to home bases and Philippine military facilities.
US-Japan cooperation has further developed with joint exercises that involve South Korea in interstate waters and in international waters off North Korea. Japan also has an agreement with Augus countries Australia and Great Britain regarding joint military exercises, and Japan is negotiating a similar agreement with the Philippines.
China was surprised to sign a defense pact with the Solomon Islands last year. The United States recently signed an agreement with Papua New Guinea to grant access to military facilities for twenty years. Agreements have also been signed with Palau and Micronesia. The United States is building up its military in the Marshall Islands and has also strengthened its presence in Hawaii.
Joe Biden opens the meeting
The entire US effort must approach a potential conflict over Taiwan.
But proximity is not the only thing that matters, advanced technology is also involved. By meeting these threats en route to the target, China must avoid the risk of knocking out a military base in a first strike.
China’s military build-up is extensive and the Chinese leadership claims that Taiwan is a part of China that will sooner or later be annexed to mainland China. The U.S. is pushing NATO countries France and Great Britain to patrol the waters between Taiwan and China more frequently, demonstrating that NATO has backing if the U.S. ends up in direct conflict with China.
Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken is an experienced and cautious diplomat. He spoke on the phone with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang ahead of his trip to Beijing. Blinken’s main message is “the importance of communication.” The Chinese Foreign Ministry briefly announced that the United States should stop interfering in China’s internal affairs. Qin Gang called on the US to “show respect” to China over Taiwan.
President Joe Biden says he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping “at some point.”
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