Will Russia go to war with Ukraine?

According to Western intelligence, published photos and even partly confirmed by Russian authorities, Russia has been conducting a military march around Ukraine that has no parallel since the outbreak of the war in eastern Ukraine and annexation of the Crimea since 2014.

Read more: “Chicken race” after the Ukrainian Russian mobilization

what happens?

We do not know if this was a deliberate display of force against the West or if it was a preparation for a military operation in Ukraine. The purpose may be to strengthen the Russian presence and influence in the country and in the area of ​​former Soviet interest. These are 10,000 soldiers in combat-ready units with tanks, artillery and robots. It risks sparking an international crisis and endangering the security of Europe and the world.

On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling for a reduction in tensions. He stressed the need to focus on Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, as did Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken in a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart in Brussels. The economic powers of the Group of Seven condemned the “large-scale troop movements, without warning, as a threat and as destabilizing actions.”

Read more: Biden is holding talks with Putin about concerns about Ukraine

What should Vladimir Putin gain from this?

He plays a loud game, but that didn’t deter him before. He said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was one of the biggest geopolitical catastrophes of the twentieth century and aimed to restore the country’s role as a recognized superpower. In all ways, he tried to counter the expansion of the European Union and NATO to the east in the countries of the former Soviet Union. It occurred with military interventions in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine in 2014. He annexed Crimea, in violation of international law. His motives are political, military and economic.

Thirty years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia was subjected to severe and severe economic sanctions. But at home, in an economic crisis that deepened during the pandemic, in the turmoil that followed the attempted assassination and imprisonment of regime critic Alexei Navalny and ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, Putin can show his strength by focusing on what he describes as foreign patriots. Threats. And his defense minister claimed on Tuesday that NATO is massing not only in the Black Sea but also in the Baltic states, on the Baltic Sea in the vicinity of Sweden.

Read more: The Group of Seven condemns the Russian forces on the Ukrainian border

How can the West work to reduce the threat of war?

Today, the NATO Defense Alliance is holding an additional meeting on the Russian mission. Participate in Brussels, the US Secretary of State for Defense and Defense. After talks between Biden and Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin confirmed that the US president had expressed hope that the great powers could normalize their bilateral relations. The only peaceful way is to seek dialogue by all diplomatic means to resolve the acute crisis. He also appealed to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is a member of NATO and has strong economic and military ties with Russia in northern Syria. Another factor: If the military confrontation ends, Germany will likely be forced to suspend cooperation on the Russian gas pipeline Nordstream 2. It would be a devastating blow to Vladimir Putin and his country’s supplies.

Jan Hoglund is a foreign correspondent and long time employee of Göteborgs-Posten. It has the whole world as a control area and has monitored many conflicts and disasters in the world at the site.