The United States will discover Russian weapons

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The United States will almost certainly find out in advance whether Russia is preparing for nuclear attacks, experts say.

President Vladimir Putin has said he might consider using nuclear weapons if Russia’s “territorial integrity” is threatened.

However, military analysts say no indications of such activity have been detected so far.

Preparations for an attack will be clear, says Pavel Budwig, senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.

A 2017 report from the institute monitors 47 nuclear storage sites across Russia. These are constantly monitored by intelligence and military surveillance satellites in the United States and other countries. It can even be seen using commercial satellites.

visible signs

I am convinced that the United States will see if there are any Russian preparations to use nuclear weapons, says Mark Cancian, a former official at the US Department of Defense and Energy.

The weapons must be taken out of storage, the units involved must be alerted, and the Russians may also have to alert their strategic nuclear forces, says Cancian, now at the U.S. think tank for Strategic and International Studies.

It is also possible, he says, that one will see signs of the preparations of the Russian ground forces.

There are no hidden facilities

– We can be absolutely sure that there are no hidden facilities, says Pavel Budwig.

Nuclear weapons require a certain structure, people who have been trained and maintained. You can’t do that in a random place.

It is theoretically possible to smuggle individual nuclear weapons, Budwig says, but that it carries significant risks.

The Russians will never be sure that it is not discovered. It will be a gamble.

Moreover, Budwig says, Russia will likely want the West to see any preparations as a warning.