Summer temperatures in March in Spain

It is unusually warm at this time of year in Spain, and Thursday is expected to be the hottest day of the week. Aemet, the Spanish equivalent of SMHI, says in a forecast it will likely be around 28 degrees in the province of Seville in southern Spain, while it will be a few degrees cooler in Madrid.

According to figures from Aemet, the average maximum temperature in March has been higher than normal in recent days. They wrote on Twitter that on March 13 the average temperature on the mainland was the hottest day since 1950 in Spain and that 2023 already has three record hot days, one in February and two in March.

Just a few days ago, Aemet also wrote that July temperatures were in Castellón, a town north of Valencia on the east coast. Then the maximum temperature rose above 30 degrees, but the weather agency added that the urban environment may have softened the measured temperatures.

Heat waves affect the long-term trend

According to the latest report by the United Nations Climate Panel, the Mediterranean will be hit hard by climate change. More droughts are expected, as well as more and more extreme heat waves. But is this what we really see today?

According to Sverker Hellstrom, a meteorologist at SMHI, it is difficult to say what factors underlie an individual heat wave.

The question always becomes what is the chicken and what is the egg. There are common meteorological factors that influence a single heat wave, but we also have climate change that contributes to the warming of the weather. But it’s not that climate change is an independent force that suddenly makes it too hot in a particular place, he says.

According to Sverker Hellstrom, the fact that a heat wave is already sweeping across Spain in March is not unique in itself. In March 2017, temperatures of over 30 degrees were also measured in the country. But the countries around the Mediterranean are particularly prone to extreme heat compared to Northern Europe.

Down on the continent there have been a number of warmer summers than we have experienced here in the Nordic countries. Last summer was very dry and hot. And each warm case helps lift the long-term trend.