The most likely scenario of spring means a sharp drop in the spread of infection. But there is also a risk that the new alternative will make up for it.
The Swedish Public Health Agency is now introducing two new scenarios for spring. Their purpose is to help take care of planning.
According to the most likely development, scenario 0, infection will stabilize at very low levels until summer.
“Even if infections increase again, it is unlikely that many will suffer from serious illness,” state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell says in a press release.
However, the least likely scenario, scenario 1, addresses the impact of the emergence of a new virus variant.
There is a possible development of a new virus variant of ‘particular interest’ around 20 March. The variant will have the same contagion as the omicron, in which case a new peak can be reached in mid-May.
SKR: There is a willingness
It is about hypothetical development of a variant that has the potential to circumvent the effect of both vaccination and previous infection. According to the Swedish Public Health Agency, this development cannot be ruled out.
“Therefore, it is important to have a high and ongoing level of preparedness in healthcare,” says Anders Tegnell.
According to Emma Spaak, Head of Health and Medical Care in Swedish Municipalities and Regions (SKR), regions are ready for a new wave or a sharp increase in the spread of infection.
At the same time, we must do everything we can to prevent this from happening and to avoid the alternative that causes more serious illness.
“distribution of places”
On the other hand, an additional wave of infection will be a huge burden, not least when care staff has been working under tense conditions for an extended period, Spak continues.
But regions have a chance to work with, adapt and prioritize care as well as collaborate across the country through intensive care and distribution of places and resources in the best way. “We’ve learned an incredible amount during the pandemic about how to treat and manage covid-19, both in how we care and how we use resources,” Spak says.
The new scenarios extend through May 20. No new measures are needed to control the infection with the most likely development.
More Stories
The contribution of virtual reality to research in medicine and health
The sun could hit the Internet on Earth
In memory of Jens Jørgen Jørgensen