Nathan Shahar: Israel lacks a long-term strategy

It’s a strange ritual taking place now. As Lebanon cowers and hunkers down, American diplomats are explaining to politicians in Beirut that Israel’s response will be “significant but not devastating,” according to Hezbollah’s Al-Akhbar newspaper. In October and during the Iranian missile strikes in March, the White House offered Israel heartfelt support and issued stern warnings. Today, the United States is devoting all its energy to restraining Israel.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant wanted to go on the offensive against Hezbollah immediately after the Shiite militias attacked Israel on October 8, in solidarity with Hamas, whose forces were still on Israeli soil at the time. On October 11, the Israeli military leadership received a tip from an agent in Lebanon: There was a unique opportunity to attack Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who had briefly left his underground bunker. Galant wanted to seize the opportunity, but Netanyahu refused. Something similar happened in 2020, when the United States and Israel agreed to kill Iranian strategic genius Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force. Shortly before the operation, Netanyahu backed out and the United States moved alone against Soleimani, who was killed in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. “Netanyahu was a coward,” Donald Trump later said.

But Soleimani's conceptThe “ring of fire” of Iran’s allies around Israel remains in place, and Lebanese institutions have gradually been turned into backgrounds, while real power has shifted to Hezbollah and Iran. Maronite MP Sami Gemayel said on Sunday:

– We no longer care what we Lebanese do or say. Everything is a stage, a stage in which we are spectators.

Meanwhile, many other Lebanese politicians support Hezbollah’s thesis that Israel itself bears responsibility for the tragedy in the Golan. Lebanon’s most influential Druze politician, Walid Jumblatt, who has quarrelled and reconciled with Hezbollah several times over the years, has called Israel’s claims “pure lies.” It is a sign of Hezbollah’s dominance that even its critics, such as Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib and Druze politician Wiam Wahhab, do not openly accuse Hezbollah. Instead, they are calling for an international commission to investigate the whole matter. Demanding an investigation has become a subtle way of blaming Hezbollah. The last time there was an international investigation into Lebanon’s affairs was when a UN tribunal investigated the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2004. Its report singled out Hezbollah.

Israeli Druze General Amal al-Assad strongly criticized his government on Monday:

– We are a flock of sheep without a shepherd, without a leader. What is the use of bombing if you have no specific goal or plan? Revenge is not a program of action.

It is widely spread. The perception here is that the expected retaliation is primarily aimed at appeasing the Israelis who were attacked and evacuated along the Lebanese border. Lebanese Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Elias Bou Saab appealed to them:

– If you want to return to your homeland, be sure to stop the bombings targeting Lebanese cities. Only then can we prevent revenge against you.

Israel released a video it said showed a deadly rocket being fired from the al-Shu’bah area in southern Lebanon. It gave the production number and the name of the missile battery commander – Ali Mohammed Yahya – to the headquarters of the UN peacekeeping operation in Lebanon, UNIFIL.

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Nathan Shahar: Netanyahu is the one who decides what will happen now, but he is under pressure from several sides