Macron's decision regarding new elections may benefit him – Dalla Democrat

French President Emmanuel Macron stole the spotlight on the eve of the European Parliament elections. He did this by dissolving the parliament, the National Assembly, and calling new elections for himself. Election Day has already been set for June 30. The reason for the decision was said to be his party's weak result in the European Union elections and the good result achieved by the main competitor, the National Rally, with about a third of the votes (31.4 percent). Macron's En Marche party, later called Renaissance, can be described as social liberal.

The National Rally is Marine Le Pen's party. It is usually described as far-right or right-wing populism, but its political aspects have intensified recently. Marine Le Pen was Macron's rival in the second round of the presidential elections in 2017 and 2022. In both, she received a third of the votes in 2017 and just over 40 percent in 2022. Before the next presidential election, in 2027, she was estimated to have a chance of getting half the votes in the second round of elections, which she could win. . Macron cannot run, then.

Macron's move Calling new elections seemed unexpected, bold, and risky, but also unnecessary. The latter is because there are three years remaining in Parliament's term. That is, as long as the president remains in power before the next presidential elections. Many wonder why Macron is calling for new elections when his main opponent is enjoying a tailwind among voters according to the EU elections. Macron and his party risk losing. But it is not certain.

Macron has a chance to emerge victorious from new elections for the National Assembly. This depends on several factors, one of which is the electoral system. This gives Macron and his party better chances of winning seats compared to the main competitor, the National Assembly. Macron's party is also part of a coalition of parties that can be described as social liberal and bears the name Ensemble. They can be compared to the Swedish Center Party and the Liberals.

In addition to them there The right-wing bourgeois coalition UDC with the Republicans as the largest party, which arguably aligns with the Moderates and Christian Democrats in Sweden. Then there is the Nubian Alliance, which includes the counterparts of the Swedish Left Party, the Green Party, and the Social Democrats. Therefore, there are three coalitions other than the right-wing populist National Rally, which is led by Le Pen.

In the National Assembly elections, 577 members are elected in single-member constituencies. There are approximately the same number of eligible voters in each electoral district. The elections are held in two rounds, one week apart, unless the candidate obtains more than 50 percent in his electoral district in the first round of elections. However, the person who receives the most votes must also receive more than 25 percent of the votes of registered voters in the precinct. Therefore 50% of votes cast is not always enough. Voter turnout is usually low. In 2022, the percentage was only 48% in the first election round, and a few percentage points lower in the second election round.

Choice at most Electoral districts are determined in the second round. Usually only about 15% of members are elected in the first round of elections. Candidates who obtained at least 12.5% ​​of the votes, and at least two candidates, qualify for the second round of elections. The person who receives the largest number of votes is elected in the second round of elections. In many electoral districts, Le Pen's (primarily) National Assembly candidate will face another candidate.

It will be one of the other three party coalitions, Ensemble, DCR or Nupes. The possibility then becomes high that voters who voted in the first electoral round for an alliance or party that is not among the advanced parties will vote for a candidate from the largest party alliances that stands against the candidate of the National Assembly led by Le Pen. . It is therefore highly likely that many voters who voted for the candidates eliminated in the first round of elections will vote for the candidate in the second round of elections who appears to have the most support and who is not from Le Pen's party. (alliance).

Candidate from Therefore, the chances of Le Pen's party support increasing to a greater extent in the second round of elections are slim. On the other hand, the opposing (main) candidate owns it. But on June 11, Eric Ciotti, leader of the Bourgeois Republicans party, opened the door to political cooperation with the National Assembly to which Le Pen belongs after the elections and also before the elections regarding cooperation to elect candidates.

If the opposing candidate is from Ensemble or Neubes, almost all voters from coalitions or parties that are not part of them, or most of those who stand against Le Pen, are likely to go to that coalition. The National Assembly has less chance of increasing its support, however, if the party does not collude with Republicans. Overall, this gives Macron some chance of obtaining a majority of MEPs from parties that can support his coalition and thus the government. The National Assembly finds it more difficult to obtain a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, at least if the party does not collude with the Republicans.

Should be patriotic However, if they can form a government on their own or with a party like the Republicans, they will end up in a responsible position. Le Pen's party will then have to defend the policy being implemented with the disadvantages it could bring with it. Therefore, the National Assembly and Le Pen will not be as popular when the presidential elections in 2027 approach.

So Macron could benefit if his party (the Alliance) is able to form a government after the new elections and if Le Pen's rival party is able to form a government. However, Macron is not allowed to run in the presidential elections in 2027. But a candidate who is politically close to him and his party can do so. Opposing him is likely to be Marine Le Pen, whose party will either lose new elections in 2024 or form a government afterward, and will have to bear responsibility for the less attractive parts of government policy until 2027. The government is primarily responsible for internal and domestic policy. The president is responsible for foreign and security policy.