It’s time for Ukraine’s spring offensive – or?

– I think it will arrive relatively soon, in two weeks I think. But I was wrong about that before.

– Perhaps only Ukraine’s defense leadership knows why it takes so long, says Joachim Pasikivy, teacher of military strategy.

He believed that the offensive would begin in May when the ground conditions became more suitable to take advantage of the roughly four-month period of dry and stable terrain before the autumn rains began.

For nearly two months, which has accelerated in recent weeks, Ukraine has engaged in preventive combat as they strike important Russian targets in occupied territory. Against artillery, against staff, against massing troops.

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– But I don’t know what makes you not start (with the onset of spring). It may be because you haven’t trained enough or you’re waiting for a certain type of material.

Trinidad and Tobago: Are there not enough armored vehicles?

– It is possible, it can be.

At the same time, he recalled, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that the promised equipment is in place.

– Then you don’t know if it’s really enough.

– The problem is that if Ukraine waits longer, you will have less time to fight, and I think there will be fierce battles for a long time, that is, during the period this year when it is possible to fight properly with mobile units.

Several fronts

Trinidad and Tobago: How is Ukraine performing in terms of operational readiness?

– With the relatively sparse information that is available, I think most of it indicates that Ukraine has had part time to train soldiers individually, and part had the opportunity to train units together, I think.

Trinidad and Tobago: What are the supposed lines of attack?

– Many share with me an assessment that the main direction of the attack will go south in the Zaporizhia province, somewhere past Tokmak, Melitopol and Brygansk all the way to Lake Azov.

– I think it is very likely that there will be a partial offensive in the Kherson region, directly towards the Crimea.

– Then, for the duration of the offensive, Ukraine will continue to fight in the Donbass. Both because you have to defend Donbass, not least of which to commit Russian forces there so you can’t reinforce them elsewhere.

Russian bickering

TT: How do you view the recent statements of the Wagner Group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin against the Kremlin?

– It’s a very exciting battle between Wagner and the Russian military leadership, says Joachim Paasikivi, and laughs.

– Prigozhin must have sent a letter to the Military Investigative Committee, or something that can be translated into it, and reported to parts of the command. It is very difficult to see what he could achieve, but the mere fact of allowing this to continue means that it is still for some reason beneficial to Putin. But it is a sign that it is not a well-functioning military apparatus when there are such open conflicts.

Trinidad and Tobago: Can it boost Ukraine’s morale?

– Yes, and I think the most important thing is that now that the Wagner group has been replaced by regular Russian units, the Ukrainians have reportedly managed to inflict more losses on their tail, so to speak, on the Wagner group.

– From the Ukrainian side, it seems that the Wagner Group has not achieved its goal of a major operational breakthrough.