Brexit is not an economic disaster for the UK

Goes National Economist Professor Emeritus Harry Flamm In the CIPS report With 15 different predictions on how Great Britain would be economically affected by leaving the European Union and instead following WTO international trade rules towards the EU. Whether the matter is relevant to WTO rules depends on whether the European Union and Great Britain will be able to agree on other rules and tariffs this year.

The Flamm review shows that the negative effects of the WTO path are small and highly uncertain. The difference could be one or a few percent of GDP, Flamm wrote: In other words, Brexit does not spell disaster for the British economy.

The statistical effects of Brexit on UK GDP show a 15-year growth loss of between 0.2 to 10.7 percent according to WTO rules. The large differences in expectations are partly due to the fact that the studies cover different things.

Among the negative impacts discussed by Harry Flame is the rise in customs and administrative costs for British companies from zero to £15 billion annually. That's nearly double the UK's net annual fees as an EU member, Flamm says. If London's financial sector loses the right to operate freely with the EU, its position as a global financial center could also be threatened, he continues.

The CEPS report concludes with the comment that it would be desirable to eventually be able to clearly and unambiguously define the costs that Brexit would entail. However, the costs are still likely to be unclear, and the UK will not be able to serve as an example to other EU countries that might consider leaving in the future.