Brexit is not an economic disaster for the UK

Professor Emeritus of National Economics Harry Flam goes In a Sieps report Through 15 different projections of how the UK will be affected economically by leaving the EU and instead following the WTO’s international trade rules towards the EU. How closely they relate to WTO rules depends on whether or not the EU and Great Britain manage to agree on other rules and tariffs this year.

The Flam review shows that the negative effects of the WTO path are small and very uncertain. The difference could be one or a few percent of GDP, Flamm writes: In other words, Brexit does not spell disaster for the British economy.

Statistical effects according to studies of Brexit on UK GDP show a 15-year growth loss ranging from 0.2 to 10.7 percent with WTO rules. The large differences in projections are partly due to the fact that the studies cover different things.

Among the negative effects Harry Flamm discusses is that customs and administration costs for British companies range from zero to £15 billion annually. Which is nearly double the annual net fee of the UK as a member of the European Union, Flam says and continues: If London’s financial sector loses the right to operate freely with the EU, its position as a global financial center could also be threatened.

The Sieps report ends with the comment that it would be desirable to finally be able to state unequivocally the costs of Brexit. Most likely, however, the costs remain unclear and the UK will not be able to provide a model for other EU countries that might consider leaving in the future.