Brexit – An expensive deal for the United Kingdom

at Long-term analysis From the government of UK Prime Minister Theresa May on the outcome of trade relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom, and how Brexit will affect the country’s economy, the non-contractual scenario is the worst.

If the result of the vote in the British Parliament on December 11 is no, the country will exit the European Union without an exit deal. Their GDP, BNP, Then it is estimated at 7.7 percent less in the years 2035-2036 compared to if the country continues to be a member.

But – even if members say yes to the terms of the agreement – come BNP Down 0.6% compared to staying in the union. This evaluation is carried out by several ministries, including the Ministry of Finance, which participated in the analysis work.

In a comment, he said all the Brexit scenarios studied had costs for the UK Said the country’s finance minister Philip Hammond On Wednesday that:

– If you only look at this from an economic point of view, it means the costs of leaving the European Union, yes, because trade barriers arise.

Political benefits

According to Hammond, the negative impact would be much less if MEPs vote yes, as it has political benefits such as new trade agreements and new fishing water control options.

According to analysts, there are uncertainty factors in the forecast. Among other things, the EU and the UK are expected to adopt more detailed agreements based on the content of the negotiating political declaration on the relationship between the EU and the UK in the future. Another factor that is unclear is the immigration policy that Britain intends to pursue in the future.