The German Bertelmannsstiftelsen Foundation has cooperated with the German Ifo Institute calculated Different scenarios if the UK leaves the EU Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on whether the Conservative Party will win next week's UK general election.
In the worst-case scenario, UK GDP in 2030 would be up to 14% lower than if the UK had stayed in the EU. That’s almost three trillion crowns.
In a less dramatic way According to the scenarios, the risk of the UK’s GDP falling by between 0.6% and 3% in 2030 if the country leaves the EU is high. In none of the scenarios would the GDP loss be offset by the UK not having to pay EU tariffs, which currently amount to around 0.5% of GDP.
This is the first study to also examine how the other 27 EU countries would be financially affected in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Depending on the type of scenario, only the Irish economy is at greater risk than the UK economy. On average, other EU countries would lose between 0.1 and 0.36% of GDP in 2030 if Britain left. Sweden finishes slightly above this average.
– Economically, Brexit would be a losing proposition for everyone in Europe, and above all for the British, said Aart de Geus, president of the Bertelmann Foundation, in a statement.
The authors of the report write that Calculations of the economic impact of a country leaving the EU “are subject to a great deal of uncertainty”. Other studies of the economic consequences for the UK do not calculate the losses for Britons as high.
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