Vigilance and dual messaging about Putin’s future

Late Saturday, news came out of Belarus, where leader Alexander Lukashenko is considered very close to President Putin, that Lukashenko had negotiated a settlement between Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The paramilitary force is returning to its military bases.

But the messages from Minsk were initially ambiguous. The Security Council of Belarus initially chose to call Wagner’s armed rebellion a “gift” to Western countries, while warning that the rebellion could mean a “disaster”.

The Security Council also wrote that “all forms of provocations and internal conflicts in the political field, the military field, the information field or in civil society are a gift to the united West.”

According to dictator Lukashenko, Putin agreed to the agreement.

The West continues to follow

Western leaders said in unison and in chorus that they were “following developments carefully”, even after the announcement that Wagner’s soldiers had returned to their barracks.

The United States then announced that President Joe Biden had spoken with America’s allies, especially those who are part of the powerful G7 group. French President Emmanuel Macron said after announcing the continuation of contacts between the capitals of Western countries.

On his way to Iceland on Saturday, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (L) wrote on social media:

“The State Department is in close contact with the Embassy in Moscow, the Consulate General in St. Petersburg and our international partners. I will discuss the issue with my Nordic Prime Ministerial colleagues when we meet tomorrow (Sunday, editor’s note).”

Messages from countries that had not previously fully condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were even more difficult to decipher.

Mixed messages

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was one of the leaders who made phone calls to President Vladimir Putin on Saturday.

But the data from the two presidential offices differ somewhat.

Erdogan’s office said the Turkish president had offered his help in finding a “peaceful solution” to the armed rebellion.

Erdogan also “stressed the importance of acting wisely,” according to the statement.

For its part, the Kremlin said that Erdogan expressed his full support for Putin in the case of the Wagner Group’s rebellion.

“The President of the Republic of Turkey expressed his full support for the measures being taken by the Russian leadership,” the Kremlin wrote, according to Agence France-Presse.

The calm of Beijing

Silence also prevailed. Late on Saturday, Beijing had yet to comment on the developments in Russia.

However, former heads of government and foreign ministers chose to review the course of events, but of a more speculative nature.

As Carl Bildt (man):

“So many questions. Who will win? It is unlikely Prigozhin will end up, but how and when will he lose? And Putin will lose too as the basic stability of his regime collapses. He has seen Russia’s new era of turmoil begin,” he wrote on Twitter.

After the settlement was announced, Belt said, “The first round is over. Followed by the next round in drama.”