Ukraine: As the ground hardens, the offensive continues

It’s been just over a month since Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson in southern Ukraine. From then on, the drawing of the front lines had hardly changed and there was speculation on many sides that both sides would wait until the spring before the next attack.

This development Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov does not want to see. Instead, he says, the Ukrainian offensive will resume once “the ground becomes more stable”.

– We faced rain and very difficult conditions for the attack. Reznikov said at a press conference:

– We will seize the opportunity when the Earth becomes more stable. I am convinced that we will continue our offensive and we will continue to liberate our lands.

How like this offensive He won’t go into more detail, but there are two main pathways, according to the US think tank ISW. One is the continuation of attacks against Donetsk and Luhansk in the east. The second option, and the more likely one, is an attack in the south.

Military expert Joachim Pasikivi says that an attack on the annexed Crimea is not likely at the moment. Alternatively, the most likely scenario is that the Ukrainian offensive is directed at Zaporizhia and Melitopol.

– If Ukraine succeeded in cutting off Russian communications from Zaporizhzhya south, down towards the Sea of ​​Azov, they would cause enormous problems for the Russians, says Joachim Pasikivi.

Zaporizhzhya one One of the regions that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced to annex in September. Since then, Russia has lost control in many regions, not least Kherson. If Russia loses large parts of Zaporizhia, says Joachim Pasikivi, it will further undermine the goal of the annexations.

– The problem, of course, is that the Russians are aware of it, he said.

Even the terrain could cause this in the event of a Ukrainian attack. Around Zaporizhzhya it’s hard to sneak around, especially in winter, but there are still things to suggest that Ukraine might manage to get close to the city.

– It seems that the Russian fortifications are not as developed as, for example, the Donbass. But since the ground is so open, momentum is needed, and Ukraine probably has it, says Joachim Pasikivy.

announced this weekend Both Russian and Ukrainian officials said that Ukraine attacked Melitopol, which can be seen as an indication of where the country’s focus is at the moment.

Not a simple attack. These are longer distances and swaths of land than Ukraine has captured in Kharkiv and Kherson, but if the Russian military is doing as badly as it has so far, there should be opportunities.

If Ukraine succeeds in recapturing Zaporizhzhya and Melitopol, the prospects for an advance towards Crimea increase. In the event of an attack today, there is a danger that the Ukrainian forces will be more or less closed, since Russia can attack from its fortifications on the peninsula and from the areas in the northeast.

For a little more A week ago, Ukrainian forces crossed the Dnieper and raised the Ukrainian flag on the right bank of the river. But it is difficult for Ukraine to move more troops because many important bridges have been destroyed and it is also unlikely that heavy vehicles will be able to cross when the snow has settled.

– Solid and even ice is needed to be able to move military vehicles and the Dnieper usually does not freeze very much. It would be great if Ukraine tried to cross a river this winter, says Joachim Pasikivi.